Back in April when IRGC commander Zahedi was targeted and killed (among others) in Damascus by Israel at the Iranian consulate there, I believed that Iran would hold back on any reprisal, and not strike Israel in retaliation. I was wrong.
Apparently the former United States did allow Iran to engage in a limited military retaliatory strike versus Israel, after warning Iran’s miscreant neighbors that they must cooperate / participate in the air defense of Israel. If nothing else, such cooperative air defense for Israel did demonstrate that the US Hegemonic still has a few teeth left, and has not lost them all in its old age. At least not yet.
Now in August we are faced with a totally re-arranged set of deck chairs. In April, the Israeli attack on Iran did not occur within Iran’s territory – as the murder of Haniyeh did – and that failure of intelligence might in some regard be excused in Syria. But not in Iran, not now.
Iran’s failure to anticipate and prevent Israel’s attack on Haniyeh in Tehran now boldly illustrates how important it is for Iran not to retaliate, but to forge enhanced security guarantees with Russia and China, and to leverage Iran’s engagement with India to a much greater extent than it has done.
Iran should raise its BRICS profile versus Israel much more publicly and more openly, introduce actual cooperative BRICs sanctions versus trade with Israel, https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/eye-on-the-middle-east-the-brics-has-cemented-its-position-on-israel-101718515379099.html
and work as closely with China and Russia as possible to leverage security guarantees in exchange for the valuable resources that Iran may provide to those countries.
Iran should formally invoke UN article 51 to formally warn Israel of its right to attack, then bide its time. On that note, Iran must find some means to destabilize Jordan’s monarchy while increasing Iran’s reliance on Russia’s AWD early warning technology and perhaps seek S400 and Pantsir support capable of destroying USraeli F35’s (and Israeli UAV drones) and perhaps even developing sea drones that may defeat an aircraft carrier.
All of the above will take time. Time in which Iran will be publicly ‘shamed’ by the western MSM for perceived inability to take tanakh-Old Testament revenge vs Israel, the mandated revenge response so prized by western governments, societies, cultures, and people. However, Iran must note too that Israel — given enough time — will hang itself. Israel is a semi-dysfunctional state, populated by just as many – if not more – of the dysfunctional / arrogant class as any other western society. Why sink to Israel’s debauched level?
In other words, based on past performance and the apparent current state of its military and political capability (or not) to ‘take on’ Israel, rather than being led down the garden path to war by a thoroughly rotten-to-the-core West, Iran would do far better to abandon military retaliation, and seek real retaliation in another form. That form should be security a guarantee and exchange of resources and technology with Russia, with China, and with India.
Iran should burnish its association with BRICs as well, and simply denounce the West for what it is: a predatory cesspool of Wall Street greed and corruption; sporting a predilection for the worship and waging of war, for depravity, for destruction, avarice, perversion, horror, hypocrisy and lies. That’s what western governments and cultures have devolved to.
Unfortunately I doubt that Iran will take that non-retaliatory (militarily) route. But there are other asymmetric actions Iran can take vs the West that I will cover in a separate post.
regards, Steve Brown